State of the Sport: Road Isn't Dead, It Just Needs Perfect Weather

Since losing the 2020 race season to the pandemic, our State of the Sport analysis has featured a mixed bag of conclusions when it comes to the health of bike racing. The 2022 edition of the Dave Jordan Central Park Classic exemplified this, with lackluster advance registration that never got back to pre-pandemic levels of participation. But the Grant’s Tomb Criterium, typically one of the biggest races in New York City, looked better on paper - though registration was still down compared to pre-COVID turnout.

Thankfully the 2023 season brought some positive signs - particularly the Bear Mountain Classic, where a near ideal weather forecast helped boost turnout above the 2022 and 2019 editions, for the biggest CRCA road race since 2018. As the race director told us after: maybe road isn’t dead, it just needs perfect weather. Below, we dive into the turnout for the race.

Total Race Registration

Here is the encouraging news: turnout was essentially on par with the best of the four editions of the race held above the pandemic. Yes, numbers are down significantly from the ‘peak’ years in 2014 and 2015. But that’s hardly surprising given trends in the sport - we’re just excited to see the race pushing well above 500 racers.

Total registration for all editions of the Bear Mountain Classic since 2008.

Looking at turnout by field, turnout for the Novice Men, Cat 4 Men, and Cat 3 Men was broadly strong - with two of those fields at or very close to sellout levels. In fact this was the biggest Cat 3 Men’s field since at least 2018, which is great to see. The Masters Men fields were a mixed bag with some shifts in the field structure - the M45+ saw great turnout while M35+ saw registration decline significantly (perhaps riders shifting to the non-Masters fields?).

Registration by field for each of the past four editions of the Bear Mountain Classic.

Change compared to Prior Years

Displayed differently, most of the fields saw healthy year-over-year growth, with the exception of the M35+ Masters field where turnout dropped off significantly. But again, that may just be down to field structure changes.

With the exception of the Master’s Fields, registration was up for every category in the 2023 edition of the Bear Mountain Classic.

The comparisons to 2018 and 2019 are more insightful for pre-and-post pandemic comparisons. Weakness here is concentrated in the Masters fields, whereas most other race fields saw healthy growth from pre-pandemic levels.

2023 Bear Mountain Classic registration compared to the last two pre-COVID editions of the race.

Women’s Field Participation

Perhaps the most exciting data point: Women’s Field participation was up not just in absolute terms, but also as a percentage of total registrations. In each of 2018, 2019, and 2022 the Women’s Fields represented 9-10% of total Bear Mountain Classic registration, but for the most recent edition these fields were more than 13% of total registration. Could this be the beginning of new growth in the Women’s fields at the Bear Mountain Classic? Let’s hope so.

Total registration across the Bear Mountain Classic Women’s Fields since 2016.

Conclusions

What conclusions can we draw from the 2023 edition of the Bear Mountain Classic? As we know, the sport is undoubtedly smaller than it was a decade ago. But it’s encouraging to see strong turnout for the last road race in the New York City area. This is especially true for both the strong turnout in the lower category Men’s fields and the broad based growth across the Women’s fields.

We no longer have visibility into the underlying financials for the Bear Mountain Classic, but hopefully this turnout speaks to the race reaching a sustainable economic model that helps ensure it will be part of the race calendar for years to come.

We’ll keep an eye out on race registration trends as the 2024 season gets underway - stay tuned for more State of the Sport Journal entries in the coming months, and if you notice any trends you think worthy of further analysis, get in touch - team at tobedetermined dot cc